Utility of force, the futility of war & full spectrum warfare
Categories: FOREIGN COUNTRIES
As the conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of subsiding after almost four weeks of fighting even though diplomatic dialogue continues, there is much to reflect on some deeper issues of how war and conflict are likely to play out in the 21st Century. Whether it is shaping the environment before the actual application of force; the difficulties of force application in urban environments; how much force to apply to drive home expected outcomes; or what kind of external support can weaker belligerents hope to garner from the international environment, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has much to offer as takeaways. Diplomacy across the world, for all its nuanced reasoning, logic and sophistication, has not made the world a safer place and yet, its seductive value of resolving disputes and differences without violence offers hope for mankind. This paradigm only reinforces the necessity for economic, military and diplomatic tools of statecraft to work in unison in pursuit of national interests, what is known as a ‘Whole of Government Approach.’ An ‘either/or’ or ‘my way or the highway’ approach that Vladmir Putin seems to be adopting has limited utility in a world where the internet and social media has compressed geographical distances that allows large portions of the world to rally together in pursuit of a common cause. Equally surprising in Ukraine has been Russia’s widespread application of firepower to coerce a neighbour whose population shares religious, demographic and cultural affinities into submission despite knowing that the power of social media will always gravitate towards the underdog. The images of widespread destruction and personal loss, both in Ukraine and Russia point at the futility of war to achieve political outcomes. Since then, every large-scale invasion or intervention has yielded sub-optimal outcomes with Russia’s invasion driving home the seductiveness of force as an instrument of statecraft despite the ensuing futility of war as a means of achieving political objectives. While it is too early to predict the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ensuing political outcomes, the widespread devastation of a developed country, loss of innocent lives and the refugee crisis will leave scars that are bound to manifest themselves in retaliatory bombings and killings in Russia and against Russian assets across the world.