Russia thins out its embassy in Ukraine, a possible clue to Putin’s next move
Categories: FOREIGN COUNTRIES
The week before intensive diplomatic meetings began over the buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, U.S. and Ukrainian officials watched from afar as Russia began emptying out its embassy in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.On January 5, 18 people - mostly the children and wives of Russian diplomats - boarded buses and embarked on a 15-hour drive home to Moscow, according to a senior Ukrainian security official. About 30 more followed in the next few days, from Kyiv and a consulate in Lviv, in western Ukraine. Diplomats at two other Russian consulates have been told to prepare to leave Ukraine, the security official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters. They are a more ominous data point, in addition to cyberattacks on Ukrainian ministries last week, and reports from Microsoft and the US government that far more destructive malware has been planted in Ukrainian networks but not activated. Enormous train convoys loaded with tanks, missiles and troops continue to push west through Russia, apparently heading for the Ukrainian border. Alexander Lukashenko, the authoritarian leader of Belarus, announced Monday that Russian forces and equipment had begun arriving in his country for a joint military exercise that would be held in two places: on Belarus’ western edge, near Poland and Lithuania, two NATO countries; and along the Ukrainian border, which could prove another pathway for invasion. But the U.S. officials say Putin may also have concluded that with the United States and other countries arming Ukraine, his military advantage is at risk of slipping away. Britain’s defence secretary, Ben Wallace, announced in an address to Parliament on Monday that the country would begin providing Ukraine with light, anti-armour defensive weapons. Putin may become tempted to act sooner rather than later. US and European intelligence and military officials say Putin may be waiting for the ground to freeze, making it easier to get heavy equipment over the border. Or he may be building up slowly, for diplomatic advantage, as he awaits a written reply from the Biden administration and NATO to his demands that they roll back NATO’s military posture to what it was 15 years ago — much farther from Russia’s borders. Against this backdrop, a senior delegation of U.S. senators arrived in Kyiv on Monday. Their trip followed a visit to Kyiv last Wednesday by CIA Director William J. Burns, who consulted with intelligence officials and met with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss efforts to de-escalate tensions with Moscow, a US official said. Burns’ trip was reported earlier by CNN. It is possibly in that spirit that Russian troops will begin military exercises in Belarus next month. Security officials fear that the exercises could become a pretext for long-term deployment of Russian forces in the former Soviet republic, which shares a lengthy western border with the European Union and NATO.