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3rd wave to subside by mid-March, says IIT Kanpur expert

Categories: Covid 19

“There are indications that India may report around eight lakh cases a day.We hope that the third wave will subside by mid MARCH.

SUTRA (Susceptible, undetected, tested (positive), and removed approach) is a mathmaticalmodel that tracks Covid-19 pandemic curve.Adequate input helps in predicting the pattern of pandemic wave which is being reffered to by policymakers for containment and preparedness purpose.

Prof Agarwal said caution was a must but there was no need to panic.

  • "Our guess for peak value of MUMBAI is around 30,000-60,000 cases per day (base on seven day average).
  • "Delhi is likely to report 35,000-70,000 cases per day (based on seven day average).
  • “Large public gatherings during elections will naturally contribute to surge.But it is not the only reason for the spike.We can say this because we got similar outcomes while comparing results in both the scenarios. 


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