India May See Fourth Covid Wave From June, Peak In August
Categories: Covid 19
The fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India may start around June 22 and peak from mid-to-late August, a modelling study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur suggests.vThe yet-to-be peer-reviewed study, recently posted on the preprint repository MedRxiv, used a statistical model to make the prediction, finding that the possible new wave will last for four months.
The study led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur's Department of Mathematics and Statistics shows that the severity of the fourth wave will depend on the emergence of a possible new coronavirus variant, and vaccination status across the country. "Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and ends on October 24, 2022," they wrote in the research paper.
However, the researchers noted that there is always a fair chance that a possible new variant of coronavirus may have an intense impact on the whole analysis. The impact will depend on the various factors like the variant's infectibility, fatality, etc, they said. Officials at the World Health Organization recently warned that Omicron fourth wave may not be the last Covid variant and the next strain could be more contagious."The next variant of concern will be more fit, and what we mean by that is it will be more transmissible because it will have to overtake what is currently circulating," said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO's COVID-19 technical lead.
"The information shows that the fourth wave of Coronavirus in India will show up following 936 days from the underlying information accessibility date, which is January 30, 2020. Subsequently, the fourth wave begins from June 22, 2022, arriving at its top on August 23, 2022, and closes on October 24, 2022."
"Aside from this reality, the impact of immunizations — first, second or sponsor dose may likewise assume a critical part on the chance of disease, level of contamination and different issues connected with the fourth wave," they further guaranteed.
The analysts additionally featured that numerous nations have proactively seen the third flood of Coronavirus. Additionally, a couple of nations like South Africa and Zimbabwe have begun to confront the fourth and higher floods of the pandemic.
"The third wave of Coronavirus was anticipated for India utilizing the information of Zimbabwe, and when the third wave in India is getting done, it is currently certain that the figure was right," the creators added.